Islamabad: A hung Parliament with a pro-government Prime Minister is the most likely scenario to emerge from Pakistan's general elections on Thursday, enabling military ruler President Pervez Musharraf to wield control from "the back seat," observers say.

Analysts, diplomats and voters surveyed in the largest opinion poll so far are tipping a narrow lead by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of banned ex-Premier Benazir Bhutto, over the pro-government party Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q).

But no one is expecting that any of the 72 parties running, including two alliances of six parties each, will clinch an outright majority, setting the stage for loose coalitions and frantic horse trading after the October 10 vote.

"We'll see a hung Parliament, and most likely the Prime Minister will be from one of the pro-government parties," an Islamabad based Western diplomat told.

The PPP, through its newly formed electoral wing PPP Parliamentarians (PPPP), and the PML-Q are fielding the largest number of candidates. PPPP are fielding 710 candidates against the PML-Q's 647.

A six-party alliance of fundamentalist Islamic parties, called the Muttahidda Majlis- e-Amal (MMA), and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz of deposed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif are fielding 570 and 546 candidates respectively.

"A hung Parliament is the most likely scenario. That's also what the regime (of military ruler Musharraf) wants," said Islamabad based political analyst Aqil Shah.

"The regime would like a hung Parliament because if one party has a majority, what are the odds of indemnifying Musharraf or making him undergo a presidential election?"

Musharraf, who is also the country's army chief, declared himself President in 2001 after seizing power in a bloodless coup in 1999, and in September unilaterally extended his term by five years.

Opposition parties are sceptical that his promise to restore democracy will be realised through the legislative elections, because he has given himself the power to sack the future government.

Musharraf has promised to relinquish power to the future Prime Minister, who will be chosen by the 332-seat National Assembly, but a new civilian-military National Security Council, which he will lead, will oversee the future government.

Shah believes the Musharraf administration wants to avoid a situation where anti- Musharraf parties would form a majority and legislate to end his Presidency.

"If there is a PPP majority, they could try to get rid of Musharraf or subject him to a presidential election," Shah said.

"A hung Parliament would give him the ability to divide and rule, take 10 MPs from here, 10 from there, but it would not be in a position to bring Musharraf down," Shah said.

"A hung Parliament cannot confront the National Security Council. It's like driving a car from the back seat. Musharraf will let the PML-Q get into accidents."

An opinion poll of almost 3,000 eligible voters last month found 27 percent predicted a PPP lead and 24 percent predicted a PML-Q lead.

Bhutto, banned from contesting the elections on the grounds of two convictions of absconding, has also charged that the military government is angling for a hung Parliament.

Musharraf and his government fear that if the PPPP or other opposition parties form a majority, "the army would have to return to barracks", Bhutto was quoted as saying in Sunday's Dawn daily.

She said the PPP would form a coalition with the PML-N, its traditional arch-rival- turned-ally, on a shared anti-Musharraf platform.

The international crisis group, a Brussels based think-tank, predicted Opposition parties could form a majority if the vote was not rigged.

"In free and fair elections, the PPP and PML-N stand a good chance of obtaining sufficient seats in Parliament to form a government, at best with a simple majority, but most likely in coalition with like-minded parties," it forecast in a report released last week.

But it cautioned, "the military government could be tempted to rig the elections to ensure that its PML-Q allies obtain at least a simple majority".

"Pre-election rigging, including pressure and inducements, have already made inroads into PPP and PML-N electoral bases," it said.

"However the military is uncertain if these measures will be sufficient to stem a tide against the PML-Q on election day."

AFP