Islamabad: The international community is likely to look the other way if Pakistan's elections on October 10 are less than free and fair because President Pervez Musharraf's role is pivotal to the war on terrorism, according to analysts on October 8.

"Musharraf is the safest tin-pot dictator in the whole Third World," said Islamabad- based political analyst Aqil Shah.

"The primary concern of the United States (US) and most of its allies including the United Kingdom (UK) is a stable Pakistan, and they see Musharraf as essential to a stable political order."

General Musharraf, who has unilaterally declared himself President until 2007, is not contesting the elections. Pakistan will on October 8 vote for a national Assembly and four provincial Assemblies, three years after he suspended and later sacked them in the wake of his 1999 coup.

Opposition parties have leveled a barrage of "pre-poll rigging" allegations against Musharraf's Military administration, citing alleged harassment and intimidation of candidates, the elimination of former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif and the backing of pro-government candidates.

They say tough electoral laws ruling out non-graduates, absconders, money launderers, loan defaulters and people who have failed to pay their electricity bills are being applied arbitrarily.

The head of more than 80 European Union observers monitoring the polls has already described some of the conditions as not matching international standards and interfering with judicial independence.

But Pakistan-watchers say Musharraf's fabled "tightness" with Washington in pursuing the Taliban and al-Qaeda will protect him from criticism.

"There is a fear in the West that if a weak and corrupt government comes in, the fight on terror will fall by the wayside, and Pakistan will not able to survive the onslaught of the mullahs," said Shah.

"That fear is highly exaggerated," he said.

A senior Western diplomat said the more than 300 foreign observers monitoring the poll were likely to "give a green, maybe orange light" to the election.

"They may say there are problems, but nothing which fundamentally challenges the results." Shah said observers were unlikely to witness rigging on voting day.

"The level of rigging required is already in place. The regime is relying on manipulating the elections way before polling day."

Few expect a tough response from the US.

"For the US the top priority is the war on terrorism," said Shah. "As for elections and Democracy, lots of lip service is paid but I don't think the world will fall on Musharraf if they're deemed not free and fair."

The US was "being watchful but definitely their long-term interest is to accept Musharraf's mandate," said the diplomat. Another diplomat cited the "Iraq factor".

"The US with their Iraq intentions want to keep Musharraf on side, and this would also apply to the UK. Iraq is the most important factor in their thinking," he told.

"The European Union could turn to a human rights and democracy clause in a free trade agreement being drawn up with Pakistan," he said.

"The precedent is there with Zimbabwe," he said, in reference to sanctions applied over that country's elections in March. But said Shah: "There's no comparison with Zimbabwe.

"This is a nuclear country, it's Muslim, it's key to the war on terror,” he added.

The Commonwealth, which has deployed 22 observers to monitor the polls, will base November month's review of Pakistan's three-year suspension from the 54-member body largely on the conduct of October 10th vote.

"No one cares about the Commonwealth," said Shah. "One official called it an 'irrelevant colonial organisation'. It's not relevant to the Military's external or internal calculations."

"What really matters to the regime is US backing. They believe that if the US and Britain are behind us, their view will affect the rest of the world,” he told.

Shah said Washington's rapid lifting of military and economic sanctions against Pakistan, some dating back to 1990, after Musharraf agreed in 2001 to co-operate with the war on terror, was "an indication the US is likely to look the other way".