Ahmedabad: After the hype over Godhra, Akshardham and terrorism, the race for power
in Gujarat appears to be narrowing down with issues of bread and butter as well as
performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government over nine years being
raked up in areas that were largely insulated from the communal violence that rocked
the state this year.
In an election, advanced with an eye on polarisation following the Godhra massacre
and the violence thereafter, questions of governance have also cropped up in large
parts of Saurashtra, South Gujarat and the Kutch region that suffered the brunt of a
massive earthquake last year.
However, the December 12 election has turned out to be a choice between "Modi and
anti-Modi", not BJP and Congress, with lots of anti-Sonia sentiments being sought to
be evoked by the saffron camp.
Lately, various pre-poll surveys were also forecasting a neck-and-neck race in which
there is no apparent wave.
In what is seen as a "do or die" battle for the BJP, facing a resurgent Congress in
many parts of the country, ahead of Assembly elections in major states next year and
Lok Sabha polls in 2004, the stakes are high for not only Modi but the BJP top brass
in Delhi.
Though the party leadership does not want a victory in Gujarat to be seen as one got
on the plank of 'Hindutva', critics feel that success for BJP could only be on
issues of terrorism and communal divide with little governance to show.
In the attacks and counter-attacks between the two parties as the battle for the 182-
member Assembly peaks, the Congress accuses the BJP of trying to cover up "non-
governance" with 'Hindutva'.
The BJP rebuts charging Congress with "non-performance" during 50 years of its rule
and showing keenness only for "minority appeasement".
With communal violence claiming a toll of hundreds of people, mainly belonging to
the minority community, the BJP is least expected to get any minority vote with
which the party is hoping to consolidate the majority vote.
In a state where one-third of the population is urban and most of it middle-class,
the traditional BJP vote bank, the Congress is also assuring depositors, who lost
money in the co-operative banks scam, that it will get it back for them.
While BJP is playing its 'Hindutva' card aided by 'sangh parivar' outfits like the
Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and has even put up a former Bajrang Dal leader to
contest the Godhra seat, the Congress hopes to beat it at its own game with a former
Rashtriya Swayam Sevak (RSS) 'pracharak' Shankarsinh Vaghela leading the charge.
The Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani, Congress president Sonia
Gandhi and a host of other Central leaders and film stars have begun campaigning in
the state.
BJP, with a vote share of 45 per cent in the last election, secured an impressive
117 seat in the last election when the voter turnout was 59 per cent. This time the
voter turnout is expected to be higher.
Gujarat may turn out to be a catch-22 for the BJP, while Modi, seen as the face of
hardcore 'Hindutva' in the state, shouts Godhra every time he addresses the public,
the central leadership harps on terrorism and Pakistan but for the people the
dividing line between the two is very thin.
"All Muslims are extremists. They should return to Pakistan. Modi is our saviour.
Only he can set the Muslims right," says Babu Patel, a farmer of Dehrol village near
Baroda. Several Hindus echo such sentiments ignoring problems of water, power and
irrigation.
But there is a flip side. For those bogged down by "recession, unemployment and
financial losses", BJP is the culprit.
With the minority vote going enmasse against the BJP in a state where a large chunk
of the Hindu middle class is still keeping its cards close to its chest five days
ahead of the polls, tables could turn either way by December 12.
In Saurashtra and Kutch, where the party won 50 of the 58 seats, the anti-incumbency
factor has come into play and the Congress is leaving no stone unturned to
capitalise on it as the campaign hots up across the state.
The response to Narendra Modi's "gaurav yatra" is being seen as an indicator of a
pro-'Hindutva' undercurrent but only December 15 will tell whether this crowd puller
in the region of Keshubhai Patel will rake in votes.
BJP leaders in Saurashtra are privately admitting that their tally is expected to be
less this time but political observers say Modi has been able to wipe out to a
certain extent the anti-incumbency factor of Keshubhai's regime which saw the BJP
losing the 'panchayat' and civic polls.
The BJP is claiming that it brought the Narmada waters to the parched region as
Congress is picking up holes over its implementation.
While the BJP's fate depends on the impact of the 'Hindutva' factor, the Congress is
trying to make inroads by ensuring a proper caste combination in ticket distribution
and speaking of local issues.
In Nadiad in Kheda district, the Congress has gone to the extent of fielding a
sitting party Member of Parliament (MP) Dinsha Patel, who had been MLA there for 22
years to ensure the defeat of the BJP.
Roads, water and power are major issues in the industrial belt between Ahmedabad and
Vadodara, where riots brought a scourge of bread and butter problems irrespective of
community. Even here in some sections "dharma (religion)" takes precedence.
But the BJP is banking on several factors - the seats in the 182-strong Assembly are
concentrated in the riot-hit North Central and South Gujarat, the Muslim population
is less than 10 per cent and a large chunk of the majority is seeing the party as
its "saviour".
The 13 riot-affected districts, including Ahmedabad, Mehsana, Anand, Panchmahals and
Vadodara, comprise nearly 100 constituencies.
"Riots affect Hindus and Muslims both. Everyone suffers," says a businessman in
Vadodara. Dhananjay Kansara, a footpath vendor, laments about price rise. "I just
want peace," he says.
Bhima Banjara, a labourer in Sokhada village, the headquarters of one of
the 'Swaminarayan' sects, says the Muslims are pushed to the wall and sees no wave
in favour of the BJP despite the terrorist attack on Akshardham.
Inside the sprawling temple complex, where security has been tightened after the
Gandhinagar episode, the saints sound disillusioned with politicians.
Whatever the verdict, the race is between the BJP and Congress, with all third
parties thrown into oblivion. Gujarat did have a coalition government in 1991, a
rare phenomenon for the state.
Among the 1,000 candidates in the fray for the elections, being held just eight
months after communal violence rocked the state, are the caretaker Chief Minister
and several of his ministerial colleagues, former Chief Ministers Amarsinh Chaudhary
and Suresh Mehta as well as two former MPs Soma Ganda and Shivlal Vakeria.
PTI
