Bangalore: The monsoon season of 2002 was an intriguing one with none of the methods developed for empirical prediction that have been reasonably successful for over a decade predicting drought, top scientists have conceded.

The all-India monsoon rainfall in the monsoon season of 2002 was in deficit by 19 per cent with July 2002 observing an unprecedented deficit of 49 per cent, a summary of proceedings of the recent brainstorming session on the season here said.

The summary, released on December 10, said the predictions given in May, on the basis of complex atmospheric/climate models by the leading global Centres, also did not suggest a drought over India.

Stating that the meeting's focus was on this season with particular emphasis on July, it said observations from India as well as global data were discussed in detail and it was suggested that the large number of typhoons generated over the West Pacific with tracks that were Northward instead of Westward were associated with the record deficit rainfall in July.

The session was organised by the Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, in which several scientists from India Meteorological Department, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Space Applications Centre, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computations, Indian Space Research Organisation, Kochi and Andhra University and the Indian Institute of Science participated.

PTI