New Delhi: Defence and foreign affairs experts on March 20 said the war on Iraq was
not likely to be a "cakewalk" for the United States and anticipated that it could
last four to six weeks, though the "battle for Baghdad" may continue for long.
Washington's expectations that the war would be a "cakewalk" now seems "absolutely
unrealistic", said admiral (retired) K K Nayyar and added that it would be "very
difficult and costly" for its forces to conduct street fights in Iraqi cities
including Baghdad.
Other experts like former Indian Envoy to Pakistan G Parthasarathy, and strategic
affairs expert Sreedhar also said the US could expect major terrorist attacks on its
assets worldwide.
"Though Osama bin Laden has earlier described Saddam Hussain as an infidel, his
earlier statements that US would launch an attack on the 'Arab world' have now
proved correct and we have to wait and see how he retaliates as he has already
announced," Parthasarathy said.
Sreedhar, who was with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), said
even if Iraq does not react outside of its territory and play a defensive role, "the
response of al-Qaida to these developments will be crucial in determining the course
of war".
All the experts were of the opinion that the war would go on for at least four to
six weeks, but the battle for Baghdad would continue longer if the US wanted to
achieve its objective of overthrowing Saddam Hussain and installing another
government there.
To questions on how Iraq could retaliate, Nayyar said its deployment was essentially
defensive in nature and the major thrust would be to defend the major cities
including Baghdad.
"House-to-house battle and street fights in these cities can be very difficult and
costly, in terms of human lives," the former Admiral said.
Agreeing with him, Parthasarathy said battles in the Iraqi cities would be very
costly and "it will be very unfortunate that innocent civilian lives will be lost".
Sreedhar said though Basra may fall soon, the battle for Baghdad would "drag on for
quite some time".
On the possibility of terrorist attacks on US military assets in various parts of
the world, serving officers in the Indian government, requesting anonymity, felt it
was quite possible.
"The question whether Osama bin Laden will issue a 'fatwa', despite his differences
with Saddam Hussain, is crucial. Laden has already reportedly stated that the US war
moves were part of Washington's 'neo-imperialist assault' on Islamic nations," they
said.
The officials also said the role of Pakistan in its "covert support" to the US in
its war against Iraq could lead to an attack, both physical and political, on the
country's ruling elite.
PTI
