New Delhi: While the development of Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) is a significant milestone in India's endeavour for self-reliance in its space programme, its successful commercialisation by Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) will face problems, says an analysis.

Several more successful launches will be required to demonstrate the reliability of the launch vehicle, the analysis by Frost & Sullivan, a California based consulting organisation, said.

"Till a launch vehicle attains reliability, insurers do not provide launch insurance for the satellites. Operators will be unwilling to take the financial and business risk of launching uninsured satellites on an unproven vehicle," says the analysis done by Bharadwaj Ramesh.

The second issue is the ability of the vehicle to lift heavier payloads. The GSLV launched on May 8 despite various improvements could lift only 1.8 tonne.

ISRO officials said a vehicle capable of lifting two tonnes would be available in 2004.

According to the analysis, the market for satellites weighing below 2,500 kgs will be limited at best and satellites weighing between 3,500 kgs to 4,500 kgs would form the backbone of the commercial communications satellite business.

The American and European launchers can lift payloads of over 6,000 kgs today. In contrast, only by 2008 is the GSLV expected to increase its payload mass to 4,000 kgs, it said.

Ironically, this may result in a situation between now and 2008 when ISRO may still end up using a foreign provider for launching its communication satellites that are getting heavier, the study said.

The third issue, according to the analysis, is that the price advantages of an ISRO launch may actually prove to be not very significant by the time the vehicle is ready for commercial deployment.

"Due to the glut of launch vehicles in the market, the prices for satellite launches are already declining," the study says.

"With Ariane being able to offer co-launches (whereby two-satellites are launched by a single rocket), prices have come down even further. This, coupled with competition from the Chinese rockets will make it difficult to bank completely on low prices to secure new launch orders."

But the biggest obstacle to the commercial prospects of the GSLV, according to Frost & Sullivan, is the American sanctions on export of satellites that are built in the United States or include components that are made in the US.

"These sanctions pretty much shut the door for non-Western entrants into the launch service marketplace as the satellite customer needs to secure US regulatory approval to ship the satellite out of its country of manufacture," says the study.

While GSLV's commercial prospects are bleak, it could play a pivotal role in placing ISRO's own satellites in the two-tonne class in-orbit.

"ISRO can also leverage its expertise in satellite manufacturing to package a satellite plus launch contract that will significantly expand the market for its products and services," says the author.

"In addition, similar to the current arrangement with Ariane for launching micro satellites, ISRO's GSLV can complement Ariane's heavy-lift capabilities."

PTI