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After Saddam, it's time to turn spotlight on Laden!
Monday, December 15 2003 11:48 Hrs (IST)

New York: With the capture of Saddam Hussein, the spotlight now is on Osama bin Laden, but experts say apprehending the al-Qaeda chief would be much more difficult than finding the former Iraqi President.

Most experts agree that Hussein's high profile arrest would not in itself give boost to the capture of bin Laden because the two terrains are very different. Besides, bin Laden could seek refuge in border tribal areas on Pakistan-Afghan border, where he enjoys a lot of sympathy.

It took eight months for Americans troops to capture Hussein, but they have been looking for bin Laden for more than two years.

Besides, Hussein was hiding near his hometown of Tikrit, an area high on the list of American troops searching for him.

But experts say the 2,400 kms of Pakistan-Afghan border is a much different terrain and landscape. Autonomous tribes with families on both sides of the border inhabit the area, which makes it easier for them to cross the border with impunity.

These tribes support the hardline version of Islam that bin Laden is trying to promote. In contrast, in Iraq, people who suffered at the hands of Hussein had been willing to turn him in if they knew his whereabouts.

"It's a totally different terrain, a different situation and a different social structure," Afghan Interior Minister Ali Ahmad Jalali was quoted by the 'New York Times' as saying.

However, experts were divided on whether the capture of Hussein would help dampen the support for insurgency in Afghanistan.

The 'Times' quoted Steven Emerson, head of the investigative project, a Washington-based counter- terrorism group as saying, "I think there are parallels" between the situation of bin Laden and Hussein.

"We see someone who is willing to live basically secluded and who is used to action without much communication with the outside world, and that is an interesting insight into the discipline on the part of these people.

"Also, there is the issue of pursuing all leads and intelligence to track down the location of terrorist leaders. Clearly this is critical. It wasn't any kind of wiretap, but tracking down the right people."

He said a major difference between the two cases is that in Iraq, there were more local Iraqi sources who could be recruited than in the area where bin Laden is believed to be hiding out.

"Saddam's hideout was pretty much near an area that was canvassed several times," Emerson said. "It was not out of the physical reach of American forces. But bin Laden is probably in a place that has never been seen before because it is remote an inaccessible."

Emerson also said there would have been more Iraqis willing to turn Saddam Hussein in to the American forces because of the years of repression of the Shiites and other groups during his more than two decades of tough rule.

PTI





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