New Delhi: An international aviation think-tank has predicted "momentous changes" in the Indian aviation scene this year saying that the pace of developments in the sector after elections would provoke significantly higher traffic growth in the latter part of 2004.

"Once the elections are completed, probably late in April the momentum of change should accelerate, provoking significantly higher traffic growth rates in the latter half of the calendar year with a particularly strong final quarter," it said adding that the year would be that of "momentous changes" in the sector in India.

"The outlook is one of guarded optimism bordering on confidence that a workable framework is in place for the future development of the industry," the Centre's 'Aviation Outlook 2004' said. Observing that India came through unscathed in the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) crisis that affected a large part of Asia, it said the upward trend shown in in-bound tourism would continue and 2004 was "expected to be another strong year of growth, with arrivals likely to exceed three million for the first time".

On privatisation of Delhi and Mumbai airports, the Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation said after the appointment of ABN Amro as the financial advisor on the matter, the privatisation plan was "now poised to finally achieve its aim of modernising the country's premier gateways".

Further airport reforms are expected to be announced in the first quarter including a policy on airport services and ground handling, the report said noting the progress in construction of new airports at Bangalore and Hyderabad.

It said that the Government-owned carriers Air India and Indian Airlines "are now presented with a short timetable for change, to adapt to this new environment". This year would be "a year of challenge for them as they make the transition to new generation probably private airlines".

Capital inflows should create further economic activity as airport privatisation progressed and confidence develops in creating tourism infrastructure.

"The inertia surrounding India's Civil Aviation Policy in recent years has made way for a series of encouraging developments," it said referring to introduction of limited "open sky" policy during winters, abolition of airport taxes, reduction in excise duties on aviation turbine fuel and consequent slashing of prices by domestic airlines. "These moves alone promise strong growth in 2004," it said.

The Centre also noted the Cabinet decision to allow domestic private carriers to fly to SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries and the resumption of air services between India and Pakistan, stalled after the Kargil war.

"The resulting effects on travel and tourism could unleash substantial capital investment, especially as the major airports are privatised," it said.