Monday, May 16 2005 09:40 Hrs (IST) - World Time -

Thiruvananthapuram: The ruling Congress-led UDF in Kerala is passing through a grim phase with the K Karunakaran faction breaking out of Congress and two constituents deserting the coalition making it an onerous task for Chief Minister Oommen Chandy to lead the anti-Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) front in the Assembly polls just a year away.

The June 2 Assembly by-elections in Azhikode and Koothuparamba in the Marxist heartland of Kannur district and the civic polls due in September are going to be acid tests for Chandy, who has emerged as the pivot of Congress in Kerala with his one-time mentor A K Antony choosing to take a side seat after he quit as Chief Minister last year.

Election to the Rajya Sabha berth left vacant by Karunakaran after he launched National Congress Indira (NCI) also poses problems for Chandy as he would have to choose the right candidate keeping the communal balance while ensuring that the split in the party would not have its fallout in the voting.

A silver-lining amidst the gathering clouds, however, is that Chandy has been able to rally the party behind him taking the departure of Karunakaran as a "blessing in disguise".

Though NCI, headed by Karunakaran's son K Muraleedharan, is yet to prove its popularity, the fledgling party has decided to back the LDF in the by-polls as its immediate agenda is to humiliate the UDF led by Chandy.

Even the most reckless gambler will hazard to bet on UDF in the two seats won by CPM in 2001 Assembly elections with impressive margins. What, however, is being eagerly watched is whether UDF would be able to retain the votes it had polled in 2001 in the two places.

It is all the more onerous for UDF to perform creditably in the two segments as in both places it is going to be a straight UDF-LDF contest with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) deciding not to field candidates for the by-polls.

As in the case of NCI, UDF managers have dismissed the decision of Kerala Congress Pillai and Jacob factions to leave the front as insignificant since the two parties have virtually been out of the alliance ever since they had been bundled out of the Cabinet when Chandy replaced Antony last year.

Though small parties with their spheres of influence limited to pockets, Kerala Congress factions led by R Balakrishna Pillai and T M Jacob could dent UDF in certain areas in south Kerala.

A new dimension to the political flux has been added by the decision to work unitedly by Nair Service Society (NSS) and Sree Narayana Dharmapa Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), representing the Nair and Ezhava communities of the Hindu fold.