Saturday, September 24 2005 11:30 Hrs (IST) - World Time -

What if China decides to give Pakistan nuclear technology using the US-India deal as justification?

This is a tricky question. China has long given Pakistan all sorts of illegal nuclear technology transfers and many believe it still continues to do so. Indeed, as Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee's 1998 letter to President Clinton had explained, India decided to declare its weapons capability in 1998 only after it realized that the China-Pakistan cooperation on weapons was going unchecked by the US and by the international non-proliferation community. While the US-India deal may bring China-Pakistan ties into the open, the fact is that such cooperation is likely to continue even if India continues to be isolated.

But isn't China a member of the NSG and has therefore agreed to end cooperation with Pakistan?

Yes. But by many accounts, China is already cheating on the NSG rules. Two weeks before it formally joined the NSG last year, China signed a deal to provide two new nuclear reactors to Pakistan, to pre-date and therefore exempt them from NSG rules. This has been reported in the media but the US has decided not to publicize it to avoid confronting China. Almost all US experts believe that China values its ties with Pakistan so much that it will continue to provide Pakistan with nuclear and missile support regardless of Beijing's international non-proliferation commitments.

Why should Congress change nuclear laws to support the July 18, 2005 Indo-US nuclear deal?

The President of the United States has decided that bringing India into the nuclear fold is in American security interest. Congress should therefore ask the right questions on why the decision was made and how US interests in terms of security, non-proliferation etc. will be affected. It should also put into place provisions that verify Indian compliance with its side of the bargain. But at the end of the day, Congress should not block this deal because it would make the US appear to have gone back on its word and it would irreparably harm US-India ties. The Indian Government has staked its future on this deal and is already facing flak internally. Congress should of course do its due diligence to ensure that US interests are protected, but rejecting the Indo-US deal would be a poor decision.