'3 lakh could die in UK if bird flu affects humans' Sunday, April 2 2006 12:35 Hrs (IST) - World Time -
London:
A bird flu outbreak among humans could claim 3.2 lakh lives in Britain and burial or cremation of the victims could take around four months, according to a worst-case assessment by the UK Home office.
As many as 3.2 lakh people could die from the H5N1 strain of the virus if it mutated into a form that could easily be passed among humans, the confidential Home office report seen by `The Sunday Times' said.
The report, titled `Managing Excess Deaths in an Influenza Pandemic' and dated March 22, also said such large number of deaths could bring about a delay in burial or cremation as, at present, the local management was capable of handling just 48,000 deaths in England and Wales in a pandemic spanning 15 weeks, according to the paper.
"Even with ramping local management capacity by 100 per cent, the prudent worst case of 3,20,000 . Deaths is projected to lead to a delay of some 17 weeks from death to burial or cremation," the report was quoted as saying by the paper.
This would prompt the authorities to resort to mass burial stirring up folk memories of the burial pits of 1665, when around 70,000 people died in London due to plague, the paper said.
On the large number of deaths, the report said the bird flu vaccines "Should not be seen as a silver bullet solution and will not be available in the first wave of a pandemic possibly longer", the paper said.
However, a few scientists raised questions about the much hyped potential of the virus to infect humans, the report said, according to the paper.