Monday, June 26 2006 12:13 Hrs (IST) - World Time -

London: The impact of global warming may be less in East Asia compared to countries bordering the North Atlantic, such as the US and Britain, say scientists.

East Asia reacted differently to global warming 12,000 years ago and the pattern may be repeated, the study led by Newcastle University, with partners in Germany and Japan found.

The researchers, led by Takeshi Nakagawa who studied the period from 16,000-10,000 years ago, believe that climate change patterns experienced in that period are similar to those we are experiencing today, according to a report posted on the University website. Around 12,000 years ago, the world experienced a huge surge in cold temperatures - known as the Younger Dryas cold reversal event - that lasted around 1,000 years.

Warming caused ice from the polar cap to melt into the sea and destabilise the Gulf Stream, leading to a drastic drop in temperatures.

The Gulf carries warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic and raises air temperatures (otherwise known as the North Atlantic drift).

Some scientists expect that current global warming will trigger a repeat of this cold surge in years to come. However, the researchers suggest that this scenario may not be experienced across the globe.



The researchers suggest that this is because the Asian monsoon front largely acts as a barrier from the effect of North Atlantic cooling, so temperature predictions will apply to Japan and other lands east of the monsoon barrier.

Tokyo itself is likely to experience an intensification of the winter monsoon during a cold surge, with slightly colder temperatures and more snow.



"The research suggests Asia will not be as severely affected by the destabilising of the Gulf stream as countries bordering the Northern Atlantic. The cooling effect will be more gradual than abrupt," says Nakagawa.



"There may be some changes in East Asia too, but the changes will be mostly in winter. Economically, this means that the crop in East Asia will be safe because changes in crop growing season, which is spring to summer, will be relatively minor," he said.