Tuesday, July 4 2006 11:34 Hrs (IST) - World Time -

New Delhi: A deeply divided Sri Lanka, a bruised but visibly confident Tamil Tigers and escalating violence: this is what India is up against as it prepares to step up its diplomatic intervention in the island nation.

After more than four years, the Norway-brokered peace process which at one time generated tremendous hope has failed to put a lid on one of the world's longest running armed conflicts that has claimed over 65,000 lives.

Worse, the situation in the island looks much more complex, with extremist sections on both sides of the ethnic divide preparing for war even as New Delhi is being called upon to play a more active role to help end the quarter century long separatist campaign.

No one, however, has a workable roadmap for peace.

On its part, India remains committed to the peace process. Both Colombo and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have also told Oslo that they stand by the 2002 ceasefire agreement. This is the only bright spot.

But with both sides brazenly violating the truce and engaging in a proxy war that has taken dangerous proportions, the growing consensus within India and outside is that New Delhi should deepen its political and diplomatic engagements in the island.

Although Norway is committed to its role as facilitator, most international actors have virtually given up on Sri Lanka. They would be happy to see India, which always looms large on Sri Lanka, getting involved in a major way.

For now, there is a broad understanding here on four key issues.

One, New Delhi will not militarily intervene in Sri Lanka; two, there will be no contact with the LTTE, which is outlawed in India; three, Sri Lanka must remain united; four, the island should devolve power to the minorities to make them feel equal.

Until now, India has been calling upon Sri Lanka's dominant political parties to reach consensus on devolution of powers but the message is not reaching home. Some feel even its urgency is being missed.

Among those in India advocating a larger role for the country are those who sympathize with the LTTE. They would like New Delhi to end all military cooperation with Colombo and lift the ban on the Tigers. This group is in a minority, even in Tamil Nadu.

The majority opinion favours India going for diplomatic and political intervention, a la Norway, but without backing LTTE. Some, however, want to explore the Tigers' mind to see if they are amenable to a negotiated settlement without splitting up the island.

In Sri Lanka, one section in the government wants India to come all out in its support so as to crush the LTTE. This section thinks a full-scale war would benefit Colombo.

Another section does not want war but wants to tire out the Tigers. However,outside the government, many believe in federalism as a framework of governance.

President Rajapakse is reluctant to bid for federalism as an anti to separatism because he fears that in such a case his ally Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), a Sinhalese-Marxist party, would ditch him and the opposition United National Party (UNP) would oust him.

But even the most moderate Tamil insists on federalism in place of the present unitary one.

The LTTE, for all practical purposes, remains glued to its goal of Tamil Eelam. The split in its ranks has weakened the group but it remains confident that it can wage war. But the Tigers now face virtual international isolation.

The non-LTTE Tamils in Sri Lanka can be divided into three streams: one wants to side with Colombo to militarily hit at the Tigers; another feels that Rajapakse can be trusted to devolve powers to the minorities, maybe with India's push; the third thinks Rajapakse is a himself a Sinhalese hardliner who will give no meaningful concessions.

It is in this context that India has come under pressure to play a larger role in Sri Lanka, almost 20 years after it tried to bring peace there but ended up taking on the Tamil Tigers with disastrous consequences.