Thursday, September 7 2006 14:49 Hrs (IST) - World Time -

New Delhi: India is anxiously following the situation in Sri Lanka where there is talk of a 'full-fledged war' following the Tamil Tigers' assertion that it considered the capture of a key town by the military as a fatal blow to the 2002 ceasefire.

The dominant assessment in New Delhi is that the statement by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) yesterday climaxes the dangerous escalation in fighting in recent months that has left hundreds dead and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes.

As long as both the Sri Lankan Government and the LTTE kept parroting that they remained loyal to the Norway-brokered ceasefire agreement (CFA) even amid heavy fighting, there was hope. The latest development, it is felt, is dangerous.

LTTE political head S.P. Thamilchelvan told Norwegian diplomats Wednesday that Sri Lanka's capture of Sampoor town in the country's east over the weekend means Colombo has put an end to the CFA.

"As far we are concerned, the government has withdrawn from CFA," he told Norwegian Ambassador to Sri Lanka, Hans Brattskar. The meeting took place in the LTTE held town of Kilinochchi.

"This is a very, very serious situation," is one reaction here.

Although the LTTE has not said it was withdrawing from the ceasefire, one reading here is that it could well amount to that. Under the truce terms, either party has to give 14 days notice to resume armed hostilities.

Thamilchelvan's warning that the Tigers would respond militarily if Colombo did not end its 'aggression with immediate effect' is viewed by some in India as a more than subtle hint that there could be some nasty surprises in store for the government in Colombo.

Some analysts feel the Tigers may hit back outside the island's northeast.

The Sri Lankan government, however, seems unconcerned about the LTTE threats. The dominant view in Colombo is that it has done no wrong by capturing Sampoor, located close to the port town of Trincomalee, from the LTTE.

Asked if the government now feared a full-scale war, a top official with access to decision markers told sources over telephone from Colombo, "There was already a full-fledged war. Both sides used maximum strength. So what war are you talking about?"

The source insisted that the LTTE was never in control of Sampoor when the ceasefire agreement was signed and so Colombo's capture of it did not amount to a violation of the truce. This is in contrast to LTTE's stand.

The official added that the international community, Norway and India included, should state this to LTTE and lean heavily on the Tigers rather than preaching" homilies to President Mahinda Rajapakse.

The official said, "What has to be done is to tell the LTTE: Sit down and talk!"

Both Western diplomats and Sri Lankan watchers here feel this is a simplistic overview of a complicated situation arising out of continuing violence that has all the potential to trigger further fighting all over the northeast.

"There is no hope of peace talks now," an informed Western diplomat in Colombo told sources.

"The LTTE insists on getting back Sampoor before any talks. They have told Norway that Sampoor was under their control when CFA was signed," he said.

The latest developments also mean that there is unlikely to be any immediate meaningful progress vis-à-vis the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), the truncated Nordic body overseeing a bloodied truce that exists only on paper.

The SLMM's strength has been badly depleted since Sweden, Denmark and Finland pulled out following LTTE objections in the wake of the European Union's ban on the group. All three are European Union members. The SLMM now has monitors only from Norway and Iceland - and they can hardly monitor ceasefire violations that are taking place all over the northeast.

Diplomats say all this will be discussed at the Sep 12 Brussels meeting of the co-chairs, the international group overseeing the peace process that has Norway, Japan, the US and the 25-nation European Union as members.