New Delhi:With the first round of polling in Uttar Pradesh this weekend, the battle for power appears to be a two-way fight between Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav of Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress battling for the third spot.

Surveys have forecast a hung house for the 403-member assembly at the end of the seven-phase polling from April 7 to May 8, but an opinion poll gives an edge to 68-year old Yadav while straw polls favour the Delhi-educated 51-year-old Mayawati who has this time round roped in even the upper castes that she had so far been strongly against.

In the outgoing house, the SP has 142 members, followed by BSP (111), BJP (87), Congress (16) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (14).

Yadav, three times chief minister, knows well that he has a tough political battle ahead of him, especially with the gruesome Nithari killings, near Noida, being used by his political rivals to highlight the "dismal" law and order situation in the state. Referring to the serial killings of at least 20 children and young women, BJP spokesman Prakash Javadekar has said: "It would definitely be an election issue."

Yadav's arch-rival and twice chief minister Mayawati too has played up on people's sentiments on this issue and had on visiting the scene of this crime sought to get political mileage.

"That the government under Yadav cannot be trusted is the general perception among the people of the state cutting across communities except among the Yadavs. The mood appears to be swinging towards Mayawati," political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan told sources.

He said: "The indications are that Mayawati is surging ahead and BSP could well emerge as the single largest party and with the support of the BJP and smaller parties, she could be well in the saddle in Lucknow."

Projecting former chief minister Kalyan Singh as its chief ministerial candidate, the BJP hopes to capitalise on 'cultural nationalism' - another term for its Hindutva ideology.

As former BJP president M. Venkaiah Naidu said, "While other political parties in Uttar Pradesh are shamelessly competing for the Muslim vote, the BJP will oppose this appeasement politics."

However, the BJP, which had made its former state chief minister Rajnath Singh as party president with an eye on these elections, appears optimistic that it would occupy the top spot though other parties including the Congress appear to give it to SP or BSP.

The party has given 165 tickets to candidates from forward castes including 63 Brahmins and 66 Thakurs - a community Singh belongs to.

Realising that it has a tough battle on its hands, the SP has roped in party general secretary Amar Singh's close friend and Bollywood icon Amitabh Bachchan, who has kicked off a high-decibel campaign on the electronic media reassuring voters that "UP mein hai dam, kyunki jurm yahan hai kam" (Uttar Pradesh is mighty for it has low crime rates).

Countering this, state Congress president Salman Khurshid quips: "UP mein thha dam, lekin kahan pahunch gaye hum" (Uttar Pradesh was mighty but look where we have come to).

Besides the actor, Yadav also has Bachchan's actress wife and MP Jaya Bachchan, another Bollywood star MP Jayaprada and former external affairs minister K. Natwar Singh campaign for the party.

The scion of the Gandhi family, Rahul Gandhi, who has for the first time decided to campaign for the Congress outside his Amethi constituency, may have also inadvertently put his party in a rather embarrassing situation with the comment that had a Gandhi been at the helm in 1992, the Babri mosque in Ayodhya would not have been demolished.

His three-day road shows and public meetings in western Uttar Pradesh from March 17 evoked a very encouraging response and he may have charmed many. But, he knows it is too early for him to expect any substantial results.

As Rangarajan put it, "at least he (Rahul) has given the Congress a feel-good factor and that would help the party boost its morale" in the country's politically most important state that has accounted for the bulk of the nation's prime ministers.

Most opposition parties have complained to the Election Commission of misuse of state machinery by the chief minister, and the poll panel in an exceptional measure has replaced the chief secretary, the director general of police and the home secretary of the state.

"The Commission will also separately look at each area going to polls phase-wise, apart from looking at the larger picture," said a poll panel spokesman - signalling that it would ensure 'free and fair polling' in the country's most populous state.