Washington: When Taiwan voters elect a successor to President Chen Shui-bian later this month, their self-ruled island will get a fresh start in vital ties with the United States that have deteriorated on Chen's watch.

What the March 22 vote will not change, however, is a complex tangle which has seen China boosting its military readiness to enforce its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan, even as the United States seeks closer ties with Beijing despite commitment under its own laws to help defend the island. There is a problem with cross-strait relations: it's much less stable than one would think, said Dan Blumenthal, a former Pentagon official and China expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think-tank.

Despite booming trade and investment across the Taiwan Strait, political ties went from bad to worse during Chen's tenure as China worked to isolate Taiwan internationally and the independence-minded Chen manoeuvred to raise his feisty democracy's global profile.

Washington, which switched diplomatic relations to the Communist government in China in 1978 after decades of recognising Taiwan, has tried to balance its commitment to Taipei and its need for stable relations with rising China.

But Chen has upset US officials by pushing a referendum alongside the March 22 polls asking voters whether the island should seek UN membership under the name Taiwan , a move implying a formal split from a China that has threatened to use force to stop such a development.

The Pentagon said in its annual report on China's military power on March 3 that China's growing economy has brought it increased diplomatic clout and economic tools to coerce Taiwan without resorting to military force , while Beijing has used its wealth to increase military pressure on the island.

In recent months, expressions of US displeasure with Chen have escalated from firm messages in private to public scoldings from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Taiwan is a democratic entity that will have to make its own decisions, but I think we have been very clear that we think that this referendum is not going to help anyone and in fact it shouldn t be held, Rice said on February 26 in Beijing.

The departure of Chen after two terms helps clear the slate between Taipei and Washington, said Taiwan expert John Tkacik of the Heritage Foundation in Washington. It's conventional wisdom in Washington - and I think the conventional wisdom is correct in this case - that the (US) president has a personal animus toward Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, he said.

"Once that's over, we can start anew." The March 22 contest pits frontrunner Ma Ying-jeou from the opposition Nationalist Party (KMT) against Frank Hsieh from Chen's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP favours Taiwan independence from China and stresses Taiwan identity, while the KMT is seen as China-friendly and willing to further improve trade ties with the mainland. A KMT victory will mean a Taiwan that is more comfortable with its relationship with China, said Tkacik.

If the DDP candidate wins, one has to be prepared for a continuation of China's very strong personal attacks against him. Politicians aside, experts point to a broader decline in US attention to Taipei as Washington fights wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and courts China for help on Iran, North Korea and other diplomatic problems.

Senior-level attention in the administration has been diverted away from Asia more broadly, but certainly from Taiwan issues, said Randall Schriver, former US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Schriver's firm, Armitage International, and the American Enterprise Institute published a study on February 22 that urged Washington and Taipei to revive official dialogue and cooperate in global health and environmental projects that recognised Taiwan's unique identity without provoking China.

Providing Taiwan with more international recognition as a global good citizen will provide Taiwan with the dignity it wants and deserves, said Blumenthal. In so doing, Taiwan will over time put aside the more intractable questions of sovereignty and de jure independence.

Source : UNI