Kathmandu: Though Nepal held its first national election after nine years under a truce with its former Maoist guerrillas laying down their arms, the armies of the state as well as the former guerrillas still remain a key factor in deciding the poll results.

Counting started amidst tight security after Thursday's historic constituent assembly election and the first trends showed the Maoists taking the lead in 32 of the 71 constituencies where counting had started. But the real picture would emerge much later since Nepal is following a complicated mixed voting system.

For the 601-member constituent assembly, that will decide the fate of the country's embattled monarchy and write a pro-people constitution, only 240 representatives will be elected on the basis of direct fights.

The bulk of the seats - 335 - are to be decided on the basis of proportional representation, in which voters cast their ballots in favour of parties and not contestants, while the remaining 26 are to be nominated.

While the Maoists, who are fighting the battle of the ballot after 17 years, have been doing unexpectedly well in the direct fight, thanks to the large number of young voters who want a change in leadership, and the image of corruption and inefficiency dogging the traditional parties, the proportional representation system could favour their rivals.

Of the 17.6 million voters, over 60 percent of whom turned up to take part in Thursday's election, a bloc of over 100,000 is expected to vote against the rebels.

These are the security forces, including the Nepal Army, that was the rebels' bête noir during the 10-year "people's war" waged by the Maoists to overthrow Nepal's constitutional monarchy.

Nearly three decades ago, the army was allowed to vote directly for candidates.

It proved a blessing for royalist Nanimaya Dahal, who won with an incredible 65,777 votes from Kathmandu.

However, this time, Dahal, still contesting from Kathmandu, is nowhere in the running with veteran Suprabha Ghimire of Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala's Nepali Congress leading the contest.

But the 97,000-strong army has voted inside the barracks to elect the party of its choice.

The first signs of how that would affect the final results came from the army headquarters in Kathmandu.

According to reports, the first counting under the proportional representation system showed the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (UML), which had been routed in the direct fights, scrabbling back, thanks to the soldiers' vote.

In the army headquarters, the UML had received 1,200 votes while the prime minister's party had bagged 402, a local daily said.

The emerging victors, the Maoists, had expectedly bombed at the army barracks, garnering only 187 votes.

Besides the army, nearly 50,000 members of Nepal Police, over 25,000 Armed Police and 35,000 temporary security personnel are also eligible to vote under the proportional representation system.

To counteract the anti-security vote, the Maoists are banking on their own guerrilla force, the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

There are about 19,000 PLA combatants barracked in 28 cantonments and their vote will undoubtedly go in favour of their party.

Indeed, two PLA deputy commanders are fighting the direct contests, despite the approval of the UN, which is supervising the arms and army of the Maoists to ensure a free and fair election.

Source : IANS