Josy Joseph

New Delhi: Desperate terrorists could make bold efforts at violence in summer in Kashmir and outside to regain their lost position, government fear. The fluid political situation in Pakistan could help terrorists to freely move into Kashmir, where they want to step up violence so as to be more influential, especially in the run up to the coming state assembly elections.

However, sources admit that the violence levels in Kashmir is historic low, and in an unprecedented situation over the past four months just seven terrorists had infiltrated into India, against about 80 during the same period last year.

Many sources with the government admit that India has failed to seize the opportunity and move into peace negotiations, engaging both separatists and Pakistan.

This may further contribute to violence levels in summer months.

The attack in Samba on Sunday and a major infiltration bid in Jammu last week are clear signs of the desperation among terrorists. The terror groups, who have failed to keep up the level of violence, will try to assert their importance in Kashmir this summer.

Over the past couple of years, violence in Kashmir has been dwindling, with 2007 recording a historic low in most parameters of terrorism - number of incidents, terrorists and civilians killed etc.

And in 2008, it has further dropped -there has been no infiltration until April end, and the usual high violence in summer’s opening month of April was absent this time.

However, a study presented before the top brass of the Indian Army a few days ago during the Army Commanders’ Conference here in the Capital, had warned that the rise in terrorism in Pakistan could bolster violence within India too.

The study had expressed concern over the resurgence of Taliban and strengthening Al-Qaeda.

Some sources in civilian intelligence agencies do admit that the revival of terror groups aligned to Al-Qaeda is bolstering Kashmir terrorists. The terror groups’ most important concern “is to regain their lost ground in Kashmir,” says an analyst.

The fluid political situation in Pakistan is making it easier for the terrorists to crossover from other side into Indian Kashmir, with the high passes having opened up with snow melting away.

“It could be that these terrorists are getting active support locally, or at a larger national level there is some effort to push in as many into our side to keep Kashmir boiling,” says an analyst.

There are no dependable intelligence inputs to show that hundreds of terrorists have massed on the other side, and Pakistan is going to actively push them into India. However, Indian security agencies continue to paint extremely scary scenario.

Source : DNA