NEW DELHI: The first day of the crucial Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting in Vienna on Thursday ended on predictable lines: the majority going along with a clean waiver for India, while three nations with strong domestic nonproliferation concerns wanted a commitment on signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which amounts to giving an legal standing to Indias voluntary moratorium on future tests.
Indian and US hopes of wrapping up the waiver by Friday appear unlikely to be fulfilled and another meeting of the NSG appears inevitable. New Zealand, Austria, Ireland and some of the Nordic nations are among the known opponents of a waiver without conditions. It is not yet clear if other members have joined the bandwagon. Sources however claim that the majority of the 45-member group understand Indias position and realise how difficult it will be for prime minister Manmohan Singhs government to agree to further conditions. Indias political establishment is divided down the middle on the nuclear deal. The PM had to seek a vote of confidence as the UPAs Left allies withdrew support because of their opposition to any deal with the United States.
Both New Delhi and Washington, with an eye on the US Congress deadline are pushing for a decision as soon as possible. The US Congress needs to approve the bilateral 123 agreement, which it cannot do without the IAEA safety deal and the NSG waiver.
The IAEA has already approved the safety protocol.
"Our case has been well received by the majority of NSG members, but lets see what happens tomorrow, a senior official who did not wish to be identified said. India wants a ``clean waiver from the NSG and has made it clear it is unwilling to accept any conditional exemption.
During a break soon after the NSG members gathered to formally consider the US draft for nuclear trade, foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon briefed delegates. He argued that an exemption for India would not weaken but would strengthen the international nonproliferation regime. Ironically the NSG, which in its initial avatar was called the London club, was set up after India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974.
The exemption for India is required because New Delhi has refused to sign the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, which allows countries to be part of the worldwide nuclear commerce.
Menon spoke of Indias impeccable past record and said that the country has tough export control laws and has never transferred dual use technology to third countries. Menon who is heading the high powered Indian delegation is accompanied by the PMs special envoy Shyam Saran, and senior officials of the department of atomic energy.
On Wednesday Menon held talks with Germany, the current chair of the NSG, South Africa the outgoing chair, and Hungary, which will take over fromr Germany. US ambassador David Mulford is also in Vienna pushing Indias case.
Mulford has said that while he is confident that the NSG will come to a consensus on the waiver for India, he did not know whether it could be reached by Friday. "This wont be easy, we need to be patient," he is reported by agencies as saying. "It is quite early to say how the NSG talks will go".
Countries like Ireland, New Zealand, and Austria as well as Norway, Finland and the Netherlands have reservations since they feel it will hurt the nonproliferation regime, which has been assiduously built up since the 1970s.
These countries will want India to show their commitment to nonproliferation either by agreeing to sign the CTBT or to stop producing fissile material for its weapons programme. New Delhi says its civilian and military facilities are now separated and the rest of the world cannot dictate what it does with its weapons programme. India has already agreed to place its civilian facilities under international safeguards.
Sources in the government say, that the rest of the world is also eager to do nuclear business worth billions of dollars with India and are keen to get a potential customer. Even others not involved in nuclear trade, realise the importance of India as a thriving market for their produce. These factors will also come into play.
However the non proliferation lobby will continue to insist on conditions. The challenge for India and the US is to get the wording of the exemptions right.
