The best way forward would be for the two Koreas to unify, but China wont allow it, says analyst

HONG KONG: China will take control of North Korea directly or indirectly in a post-Kim Jong-il scenario, and while that may ward off a potential power struggle among military leaders in the nuclear weapon-armed state, it bodes ill for China and the region, says writer Gordon G. Chang.

In an interview to DNA from Toronto, Chang, author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World, noted that many of the military generals in North Korea had "very close ties with China" and would probably form a "collective military government" in the event of President Kim Jong-ils death.

"North Korea will nominally remain an independent state, but China will have a great influence on how it operates; it will very much determine what happens there."

While such an arrangement would enhance Chinas leverage in Asia, Chang believes China would be "buying a lot of problems." North Korea, he notes, "isnt exactly a strong state, so when China exercises dominion control, its going to have to reconstitute a lot of North Korea � the economy, civil society and infrastructure."

Which is why, he reckons, South Koreans "arent exactly dying to take over the North: its going to be troublesome for whoever takes over."

There are times, says Chang, when nations do things that are not in their best long-term interests. "It may well not be in Chinas long-term interest to take over North Korea either formally or informally, but China has always tried to exercise control over its borders, so I can see China doing something silly � like try to absorb North Korea or turn it into a vassal state."

He says North Korea could end up being Chinas Tar-Baby: a sticky situation that will only gets aggravated with further engagement. In his estimation, the best option is for the two Koreas to unify, "but China is certainly not going to want that." In the long term, it will be a source of instability for the two to remain separate.
Source : DNA