New Delhi: Year 2009 may see some interesting realignment in the states political equation ahead of the Lok Sabha (most likely in April-May) and assembly elections (scheduled to be held in September).

The elections may see a stiff fight between the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party both regional forces -to emerge as the dominant political force in the state.

The NCP is threatening to get ahead of the Congress in the number game through better strategy, although for the election the Congress-NCP alliance will remain intact to take the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance on.

Through meticulous covert operations, the NCP is vying for at least 85 assembly seats of the 288 in the assembly polls. In Lok Sabha, it is targeting 15 seats of the 48 seats from the state; the Congress and the NCP are targeting 30-plus seats together.

The Congress may me undermined by the Narayan Rane factor, too. Rane, who has been suspended from the party, enjoys a stronghold in Konkan, where the Congress is weak. The NCP is trying to work out a strategy to win him over to obliterate the Congress in the region.

Changes in the states political landscape will be caused by outfits trying to get a foothold in the state. They will be wooed by the big parties. The Sena, which is scouting for new partners outside its 20-year-old alliance with the BJP, may seek a tie-up with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, led by Raj Thackeray. The cantankerous MNS remains untested, but Sena chief Bal Thackeray may embrace his estranged nephew with a barter policy to retain the partys hold on the Marathi vote bank with the sons-of-the-soil agenda.

The Sena and the BJP, which is beleaguered by disorder within, are trying to woo the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), led by Mayawati, to divide the dalit-OBC vote bank, which has traditionally been with the Congress-NCP. Mayawati, they feel, can weaken the Congress in Vidarbha.

Source : Central