Colombo: The fall of Kilinochchi, the LTTEs administrative headquarters, is more a psychological victory for Sri Lanka president Mahinda Rajapaksa and the government forces than a great strategic success. Colombo has scored a major point but it is too early to declare victory.
But its importance in boosting the morale of the security forces cannot be under-stated. If the administrative headquarters, which the Tigers defended tooth and nail, can fall, the next round would be easier for the Sinhala army.
In the next few days the military will try to capture Paranthan and the crucial Elephant pass causeway, which will give the army free flow of supply lines from Colombo. Successive governments, including that of former president Chandrika Kumaratunga, have struggled hard to control the highway that would allow easy movement of goods from Colombo to the Jaffna peninsula. The LTTE often attacks these supply lines.
Colombo can declare victory only when government forces control Paranthan and the Elephant Pass. That, however, does not mean that Mullaitivu, where Tiger chief Prabhakaran is still holed up, can be easily captured. His headquarters is deep in the jungles and getting to him will not be easy.
Yet, once the forces get Paranthan, Colombo will control most of the populated areas in the northern province. The Tiger cadres are likely to retreat to the thick jungles and carry on hit-and-run forays from there.
That is when India will feel the heat. Prabhakaran, not one to give up easily, is likely to play the India card, through Tamil Nadu politicians, to exert some influence on Colombo for a truce.
But, for now, president Rajapaksa is emerging as the most popular political leader in Lanka. No earlier president had achieved what he has against LTTE. Though the cost of the war has been high and prices of all essential commodities have sky-rocketed, the Sinhalese see him as lion king Duttagamini, who defeated the Tamil prince Elara and set up the foundations of the Sinhala-Buddhist state.
Recently, Rajapaksa addressed Tamils of the northern province and promised to free them from the LTTEs stranglehold. He is the first Sinhala leader to have addressed them in their own language. He can safely look forward to a second term.
