New Delhi: The LTTE's activities could spill into India if the Tamil Tigers continue to lose ground to Sri Lankan forces, warn Indian intelligence sources watching the Sri Lankan armys entry into Kilinochchi.
The north Sri Lanka town was the LTTEs administrative headquarters for years, until it shifted to the safer Mullaitivu a few weeks ago. Indian agencies are convinced the LTTE will continue to wreck havoc across Sri Lanka even if they lose all their ground. They also believe LTTE supremo V Prabhakaran will not surrender to the Sri Lankan military.
He would either die fighting or seek asylum in a foreign country, such as South Africa, with a large Sri Lankan Tamil population. "He has a lot of resources" internationally, says a source in the intelligence.
The LTTE continues to carry out assassinations and attacks in eastern Sri Lanka, where the pro-government Karuna factions political arm rules. Such tactics would continue, Indian agencies warn. But as their free space shrinks in Sri Lanka, many LTTE cadres could move to India. They may not carry out terrorist activities here but many of them could take to robbery and petty thefts to sustain themselves.
What is most worrying, though, is the humanitarian situation in Tamil regions of Sri Lanka, and its fallout on Tamil sentiments in India. The Rajapaksa administration has failed to devolve power effectively in eastern Sri Lanka, where LTTE defector Karuna and his supporters are in power.
"The (Indian) government has to immediately work on the Sri Lankans to devolve power, or else the Tamils in Sri Lanka will continue to suffer state exploitation. And that could lead to Tamil sentiments in India rising genuinely," says a seasoned Sri Lankan watcher in the intelligence community.
Some 250,000 Tamils have been internally displaced in Sri Lanka in the wake of the recent fighting, and most of them are refusing to come out into the government controlled areas fearing harassment. "There is a shortage of essential items for the refugees," says a source.
Another sources pointed out that life for ordinary Tamils in Jaffna, under Sri Lankan military control for years, is miserable with inflation and overriding military presence.
