The situation in Nepal is getting murkier day by day. A raging civil war has taken a toll of over 10,000 lives - and yet there is no sign of putting an end to the war. What makes the deed worse is that, perhaps a majority of those who died did not know why they were being killed or killing others. One is doubtful if even the Maoists, who have a large number of school-leavers and urchins in their ranks, would know what they are fighting about in this war.

A war surely it is. Over 11,000 killed in a country of barely 30 million is not a small matter. And, when one considers that bloody encounters between State forces and Maoists have disrupted normal life and scared thousands to flee their homes and cross the borders to find safety in India, then certainly the war no longer remains a single country affair. Whatever flabbiness New Delhi may have shown in the current Nepal crisis, we cannot fault it for showing extra concern over Nepali developments.

Yet New Delhi's extra-concern is overshadowed by the clumsy behaviour of King Gyanendra and his political opponents in Kathmandu. When Gyanendra dismissed his own Government and promulgated personal rule (1st February), he explained that he had assumed executive powers because politicians failed to stall the Maoist advance. He also claimed that he would negotiate peace with the Maoists. But, he also ordered his troops to clear out the rebels from their jungle hideouts. Nobody was impressed - least of all the Maoists. They rejected royal gesture without ceremony.

The major political parties also failed to appreciate Gyanendra's policy. They hoped in the beginning that the King would restore status quo ante and call for holding a Constituent Assembly. But they were disappointed. They found that the King seriously believed that - like Napoleon - he was the MAN OF THE HOUR to get rid of Nepal's ailments.

But he proved to be less than a novice in the political game. He fumbled and contradicted himself at every move. First, he closed all doors for a negotiated settlement with the Maoists. Then he changed tracks and ordered his troops to hunt out the Maoists. But - very foolishly one should say- he also ordered mass arrest of prominent politicians.

This aroused utter confusion in Kathmandu. Many feared that the King's regime was out to crush all civil and political liberties that the Nepali people had gained since 1991. This fear generated great resentment even among ordinary citizens - a factor I noticed when I visited Nepal a year ago.

But recent events also have international implications. New Delhi is understandably angry. It did not expect that the royal regime would act independently and go expressedly against its wishes. Both Washington and London have followed suit and threatened to cancel aid to Nepal. India has claimed that it has suspended military assistance to the royal regime to help it fight he against Maoist rebels.

But, even here we find contradiction. Pakistan has rejected any call to stop supplying arms to Kathmandu. Instead, it has insisted that handling of Maoist rebels is purely a domestic affair and that it deems it necessary to help assist Islamabad militarily rather than cutting of arms supply.

Presumably, China too shares and supports this view, but we cannot be sure. All one can say is that external constellations may assume different shapes and King Gyanendra's survival would depend how he makes use of external environment to outwit his opponents.