Musharraf's latest speech to the world, is perhaps the last nail on the head for
India's patience and tolerance. It is evident from the General's speech that
Pakistan has no agenda or peace plan.
To his credit Musharraf has been applying a lot of common sense. On the one
hand he presented a lovely fabric to the international community woven with good
intentions, laced with assurances and wrapped with commitments.
On the other he quietly allowed the militant leaders to pursue their own agenda. He
played the same game with the US a few months ago, offering them runways to
land while building bunkers that housed the Osamas and Mullah Omars.
Apart from good public relations Pakistan has no other strength at its end. The
confidence Musharraf has is ironically from the Indian quarter and not his own.
His best confidence booster would be the fact that India in its long history has
NEVER initiated war on any nation.
India, thankfully for the Pakistan President is still thinking, "Should we attack".
Compare this to 9/11, the first questions the United States tried to answer was
"When to attack", "Where to attack" and "How long do we attack". The US did
not even think twice before going on the offensive.
Public Relations and double standards are not long-term options and that is where
the Pakistan President got his calculations wrong. He expected the world
community to chew on his PR pudding yet again. However, the world is slowly
waking up to reality, which is bad news for the Pakistani President.
The clouds of war loom large over Pakistan and options for them are limited and
the President knows it only too well. He also knows that the might of the India
forces is too much for him to take on. Pakistan will be on barren land in no time if
India chooses to unleash its might.
Musharraf's only remote option is nuclear and if plays that card, he may knock
few key cities of India but that would mean Pakistan's isolation from the world
community. Even his allies in the Middle East will be compelled not to support
him.
My reading of Musharraf is that he is prudent and will do everything in his
capacity to avoid a direct conflict with India. His best chance is through proxy
wars and guerilla battles. To do that he needs to learn a basic lesson taught in
primary school. Shut Up when you are in trouble.
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