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Musharraf, please shut up
By Neena Richards
Wednesday, May 28 2002 16:30 Hrs (IST)

Musharraf's latest speech to the world, is perhaps the last nail on the head for India's patience and tolerance. It is evident from the General's speech that Pakistan has no agenda or peace plan.

To his credit Musharraf has been applying a lot of common sense. On the one hand he presented a lovely fabric to the international community woven with good intentions, laced with assurances and wrapped with commitments.

On the other he quietly allowed the militant leaders to pursue their own agenda. He played the same game with the US a few months ago, offering them runways to land while building bunkers that housed the Osamas and Mullah Omars.

Apart from good public relations Pakistan has no other strength at its end. The confidence Musharraf has is ironically from the Indian quarter and not his own. His best confidence booster would be the fact that India in its long history has NEVER initiated war on any nation.

India, thankfully for the Pakistan President is still thinking, "Should we attack". Compare this to 9/11, the first questions the United States tried to answer was "When to attack", "Where to attack" and "How long do we attack". The US did not even think twice before going on the offensive.

Public Relations and double standards are not long-term options and that is where the Pakistan President got his calculations wrong. He expected the world community to chew on his PR pudding yet again. However, the world is slowly waking up to reality, which is bad news for the Pakistani President.

The clouds of war loom large over Pakistan and options for them are limited and the President knows it only too well. He also knows that the might of the India forces is too much for him to take on. Pakistan will be on barren land in no time if India chooses to unleash its might.

Musharraf's only remote option is nuclear and if plays that card, he may knock few key cities of India but that would mean Pakistan's isolation from the world community. Even his allies in the Middle East will be compelled not to support him.

My reading of Musharraf is that he is prudent and will do everything in his capacity to avoid a direct conflict with India. His best chance is through proxy wars and guerilla battles. To do that he needs to learn a basic lesson taught in primary school. Shut Up when you are in trouble.

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